Stock markets, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, hit record closing highs Thursday, buoyed by strong earnings and a drop in crude oil prices. The catalyst: former President Donald Trump's announcement that hostilities with Iran have "terminated," following a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire.
WTI crude oil futures are now pricing a significantly lower probability of hitting $150 per barrel. Prediction markets also show decreased odds of oil reaching $90 by the end of June. The decline in crude is a direct reflection of easing supply fears as geopolitical tensions de-escalate. Markets are now watching ongoing U.S.-Iran talks for further signals.