Jim Cramer is sounding the alarm on the US economy after the latest Consumer Price Index report showed inflation accelerating to a 3.3% annual rate in March 2026-up sharply from 2.4% in February. The primary driver: a 12.5% spike in energy costs fueled by the ongoing US-Iran conflict, now in its fifth month with no ceasefire in sight. Compounding the pressure, US tariffs are adding further strain to supply chains.
The data has upended rate-cut expectations. Prediction markets now put the odds of a Fed rate cut by June 2026 at just 4.5%, down from 8% a week ago. The probability of a cut by September has halved to 29.4%. Analysts expect increased dissent at the April Fed meeting as hawks push back against any easing.
All eyes now turn to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and upcoming nonfarm payrolls and inflation reports. Any escalation in the US-Iran conflict could further roil energy markets-and keep inflation sticky.