Morgan Stanley has sharply cut its oil-price forecasts, anticipating stabilization between $80 and $90 per barrel as geopolitical tensions ease.
The revision follows a framework agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil. By mid-to-late May 2026, tanker traffic resumed even before a formal deal was signed, triggering the largest one-month drop in oil prices around May 20.
During earlier negotiations, Iran began collecting transit tolls of approximately $1 per barrel, notably accepting payment exclusively in cryptocurrency or yuan. Market analysts observed Bitcoin prices reflecting the de-escalation of tensions.
For investors, the forecast signals margin compression for high-cost producers that relied on triple-digit Brent. Conversely, energy-intensive sectors like airlines and petrochemicals are poised to benefit from lower input costs.