Nvidia reported a blockbuster first quarter, posting record revenue of $82 billion - an 85% surge year-over-year. Net income hit $58 billion, a 211% jump, while profit margins reached an unprecedented 71%, underscoring the chipmaker’s dominant position in the AI infrastructure boom.
Looking ahead, the company guided second-quarter revenue to $91 billion, representing a 95% annual increase. That forecast, however, lands squarely in the shadow of escalating U.S.-China tech trade tensions, where export controls and sanctions continue to reshape the regulatory landscape.
Despite the stellar numbers, prediction markets signal cooling investor confidence. Polymarket contracts show only a 5.5% probability that Nvidia shares will hit $184 by May 2026, down from 10% just 24 hours earlier. The disconnect between earnings strength and market sentiment underscores the weight of geopolitical risk.
Key developments to track include any escalation in trade restrictions from the U.S. Department of Commerce and whether Nvidia can sustain its growth trajectory through the second half of the year.