Crude oil prices tumbled nearly 5% this week after reports surfaced of a potential US-Iran agreement, with both Brent and WTI futures sliding as traders priced in reduced risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
The selloff was triggered by an Axios report on May 6 indicating progress in US-Iran peace talks, sending Brent crude down 8% to around $101 a barrel and WTI plunging as much as 11% intraday.
President Trump's confirmation of ongoing negotiations added to the downward momentum, with crude prices continuing to fall through mid-May as details of a final draft agreement emerged. By May 20-21, WTI settled at $98.26, down 5.7%.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged toward $82,000 on May 6, rising alongside Nasdaq futures in a classic risk-on rotation. Lower oil prices ease inflation expectations, making risk assets more attractive.
A US-Iran deal could bring significant additional oil supply to global markets, as Iran holds some of the world's largest proven oil reserves. However, mixed signals from both sides have kept crude volatile.
For investors, lower oil prices generally mean softer inflation, giving central banks more room to cut rates. But if negotiations collapse, a rapid oil price reversal could drag risk assets down, including crypto.