Oil prices could surge past $200 a barrel if Iran’s war escalates and damages Kharg Island - the hub for 90% of its exports. Brent crude already jumped over 50%, briefly hitting $119, after Iran attacked regional energy targets and threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil and gas.
Thirteen analysts polled by Reuters predict sustained prices between $100-$190 under current disruptions, averaging $134.62. A full closure of Hormuz would hit Asia hardest - risking power rationing in North Asia and fuel shortages in South and Southeast Asia.
U.S. President Donald Trump extended Iran’s deadline to reopen the Strait but is considering ground forces to seize Kharg Island. If that happens, average forecasts jump to $153.85, with peaks at $200.
Even if hostilities cease, lingering threats to shipping could keep prices volatile - anywhere from $50 to $150. Power-intensive industries, agriculture, and chemical sectors will bear the brunt globally.
“Rising transport costs hit both consumer and capital goods. Chemicals and agriculture suffer most,” said NORD/LB analyst Thomas Wybierek.