Standard Chartered analysts have reduced their forecast for demand in U.S. Treasury bills from stablecoins, projecting it to be between $800 billion and $1 trillion by 2028. However, the bank maintains its overarching prediction that the stablecoin market will reach $2 trillion by the same year.
Analysts Geoffrey Kendrick and John Davies noted that despite recent market capitalization stalls for stablecoins like Tether's USDt and Circle's USDC, they remain optimistic. This outlook is partly influenced by the anticipated passage of the U.S. GENIUS Act in 2025. The report describes current market conditions as cyclical rather than structural.
Even with the lowered demand figures, Standard Chartered suggests the U.S. Treasury might still increase T-bill issuance, leveraging this potential private sector demand. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's prior comments indicated the GENIUS Act could play a key role in government financing. The Treasury's own recent statements also acknowledged growing private sector demand for T-bills. The analysts warned that combined with the Federal Reserve's reserve management purchases and MBS rollovers into T-bills, this could lead to a scarcity of Treasury bills.