The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, is pushing WTI crude oil prices higher. The waterway is effectively under Iranian control following heightened tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States. This disruption has turned the strait into a bottleneck, reducing the flow of oil and liquefied natural gas and stoking supply concerns.
Prediction markets now show a 50% probability that WTI crude will hit $110 in May 2026, reflecting investor anxiety over the prolonged standoff. Analysts warn that without diplomatic progress between Iran and the U.S., prices could climb further. Key factors to watch include OPEC+ output decisions and any escalation in military actions.