The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, established on April 8, 2026, is showing signs of collapse, raising fears of a major disruption to global oil supplies.
The White House rejected Iran's latest counterproposal on May 11-12, escalating the risk of renewed conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil chokepoint, is now in focus. Any disruption there would directly threaten global crude supplies.
Prediction markets are pricing in a significant impact. The odds of WTI crude hitting $150 per barrel in May 2026 have dipped to 2.5%, but the probability of reaching $110 remains high at 53%. Traders are watching for further diplomatic moves or any military escalation in the Persian Gulf.