US strikes against Iran pose a significant threat to global crude oil supply, potentially driving prices to multi-year highs. Iran, despite sanctions, remains a major oil producer and holds substantial crude reserves.
The primary risk involves a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for nearly 20% of global liquid oil consumption. Even the perception of insecurity in the strait could drastically increase shipping insurance premiums.
Iranian crude is cost-effective to extract, making the nation highly sensitive to global price fluctuations. The US has targeted entities, including Chinese refineries, accused of purchasing Iranian oil, though China continues to import Iranian crude at discounted rates.
Neighboring countries fear retaliation, with potential strikes targeting vital infrastructure. A surge in oil prices could reignite inflation and negatively impact the global economy.