Wall Street is poised for a positive open as optimism grows over a potential US-Iran peace deal that could stabilize one of the most disruptive geopolitical flashpoints. Traders are betting a diplomatic breakthrough will ease tensions, despite oil prices remaining elevated.
A tentative 60-day ceasefire extension reached in late May 2026, pending President Trump's approval, is a critical step toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz-through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes-and advancing stalled nuclear negotiations.
Brent crude dropped nearly 6% to below $89 per barrel on the deal's initial reports, then rebounded to the $98-$100 range as conflicting signals and ongoing military strikes injected uncertainty. US equities, however, have hit record highs on the positive sentiment.
Bitcoin rallied past $82,000 on the oil price drop and bullish equity sentiment, then fell below $73,000 as tensions escalated, triggering over $1 billion in crypto market liquidations. During the most optimistic phases, Bitcoin tracked the Nasdaq closely.
The market's next move hinges on President Trump's approval. If signed, expect another leg down in oil and a boost to equities and crypto. If not, recent gains could evaporate.