Oil prices surged following U.S. military strikes against Iranian targets. U.S. crude futures rose 0.91% to $89.00 per barrel, while international Brent crude increased 1.03% to $92.39.
The escalation follows the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter, significantly straining tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is a vital chokepoint for global oil transport, and the heightened geopolitical risk is now factored into market prices.
Prediction markets show a growing expectation for higher prices. The probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by year-end has increased, with current odds at 4.5% by September and 10.5% by December.
Analysts warn that further military developments in the region could push prices higher. Decisions from OPEC and U.S. officials will also be critical in shaping market sentiment amid this period of instability.