Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15, Powell Exit Looms

Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair is pricing in at 92.3% on Polymarket for confirmation by May 15. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell’s departure by May 31 is seen as nearly certain, with a 97.8% probability.

Warsh faces a key decision on interest rate cuts amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Fed has held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, citing those risks. The April 2026 meeting revealed significant dissent, underscoring the challenge ahead for the new chair.

Observers are watching the Senate Banking Committee for confirmation hearings and any statements from President Trump. Inflation and employment data remain critical to the Fed’s rate path under new leadership.