Wealthsimple has received regulatory approval from the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) to offer prediction contracts tied to economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends-but not political or sports events.
Prediction trading lets users place binary bets-win a fixed amount if an event occurs, lose everything if it doesn’t. Experts caution that while these markets can aggregate public insight, they also flirt with gambling and insider trading risks.
"This is still very much what I would describe as the wild, wild west," said Marvin Ryder, associate professor at McMaster University’s DeGroote School of Business.
Unlike U.S. platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi-which allow wagers on elections, geopolitics, and even reality TV-Canadian rules explicitly prohibit contracts on political outcomes, unlawful acts, or events maturing in under 30 days.
"You can bet whether there’s going to be a thunderstorm next Tuesday, but not who wins an election," Ryder explained.
Wealthsimple emphasized it has not launched any product yet-only secured preliminary regulatory clearance. Further approvals, possibly from the Ontario Securities Commission, may be required before rollout.
Experts warn retail investors to tread carefully: "Don’t wager more than you can afford to lose," Ryder advised.
Concerns persist over market manipulation. Recent incidents-including death threats against a journalist reporting on Iran missile strikes-highlight how high-stakes prediction markets can spiral beyond finance into real-world harm.