Group play at the 2026 FIFA World Cup is nearing its end, with few surprises as the knockout stage approaches. But do the pre-tournament favorites still hold their status? "First Things First" host Nick Wright has assigned title percentages to the contenders.
Argentina tops the list at 16%. Wright cites their flawless defensive record and a motivated Lionel Messi. "The vibes meter can't be any higher," he states.
France, with 15%, is considered to have the tournament's most talent. Brazil, at 10%, has won its group convincingly despite criticism, with Wright calling their performance unfairly maligned.
Spain (9%) and England (8%) follow. Wright expresses caution about England, anticipating a difficult road environment if they face Mexico in the knockout round.
The United States gets a 6% chance, boosted by Christian Pulisic's return and a potentially favorable path. Portugal also holds 6%, with their outlook heavily dependent on a key match against Colombia.
Germany (7%) faces a tough quadrant, likely meeting France early in the knockout stage. Mexico (4%) boasts a perfect group stage record and home-continent advantage.
Several other nations, including Norway (4%), Morocco (4%), the Netherlands (3%), and Colombia (3%), are seen as dangerous but with challenging knockout draws that limit their higher probabilities.