SANTIAGO - A Goldman Sachs model published Friday gives Spain a 26% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup, which kicks off June 11 in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
France is next at 19%, followed by reigning champion Argentina at 14%, Brazil at 8%, and England at 5%.
The bank says its forecast hinges on each team’s Elo rating-a performance metric adapted from chess-plus attacking talent, recent momentum, mentality, and geography.
Goldman cites Spain’s highest Elo ranking, attacking depth, and strong pre-tournament form. Argentina’s chances were hurt by a historical "winner's slump" that often drags down defending champions. France’s odds suffered because it could face Spain in the semifinals. England was marked down due to a history of tournament underperformance and a tough draw.
The bank noted its projections broadly align with bookmaker odds, though it gives England a lower probability than markets do.
The model simulates outcomes from nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978 and will update daily during the tournament.