The 2026 FIFA World Cup faces a sharply increased risk of dangerous heat conditions, according to a new analysis by climate research group World Weather Attribution. The study, released Thursday through the global players' union FIFPRO, warns that roughly a quarter of the 104 matches across the United States, Mexico, and Canada could be played in conditions exceeding safety limits.
Scientists assessed risk using the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index, which measures the body's ability to cool itself. FIFPRO recommends cooling measures when WBGT exceeds 26 degrees Celsius and postponement if it surpasses 28C-equivalent to roughly 38C in dry heat or 30C in high humidity.
The analysis found around five matches could be played in conditions considered unsafe, where postponement would be advised. The risk is almost twice that seen at the 1994 World Cup in the U.S.
FIFPRO's medical director, Vincent Gouttebarge, said the findings justify mitigation strategies to protect players' health and performance. FIFA stated it has implemented heat-risk planning, including hydration breaks, cooling infrastructure, and medical readiness.
However, more than a third of games with at least a 10% chance of exceeding the 26C threshold are scheduled at venues without air conditioning, including Miami, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia. The final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, now faces a one-in-eight chance of exceeding that limit.
Dr. Chris Mullington, a consultant anaesthetist at Imperial College London, said extreme heat is more likely to influence gameplay than cause widespread medical emergencies. "You'll see players self-pacing," he said. "So you may end up with more conservative football."
Climate scientist Friederike Otto urged FIFA to reconsider scheduling future World Cups to avoid summer heat, calling for events "earlier or later in the year, so you can have a football party rather than something that is a massive health risk."