Hezbollah
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worldSyria Cracks Down on Hezbollah, Markets Unmoved on Ceasefire Bets
Syria's actions targeting Hezbollah-linked cells suggest a geopolitical shift, yet prediction markets show no change in expected Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire timelines.
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worldLebanon Conflict Displaces 1.2 Million; Ceasefire Prospects Dim
Over 1.2 million Lebanese displaced by conflict with Israel. Prediction markets show high certainty for a ceasefire, but ground realities suggest otherwise.
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worldTrump Announces Three-Week Ceasefire Extension Between Israel and Hezbollah
US President Donald Trump announced a three-week extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah following diplomatic talks at the White House.
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worldIsraeli Airstrikes Continue in Lebanon Amidst Conflicting Ceasefire Signals
Despite US-brokered ceasefire extensions and high odds on prediction markets, Israeli airstrikes persist in southern Lebanon, raising questions about market pricing and de-escalation efforts.
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worldLebanon and Israel Extend Ceasefire Amidst White House Talks
Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a three-week ceasefire extension following critical discussions at the White House, signaling a commitment to de-escalation.
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worldTrump Brokers Three-Week Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Extension
President Trump announced a three-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire following White House talks, with markets reflecting 100% certainty but zero trading volume.
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worldHezbollah Rockets Target Galilee Ahead of White House Talks
Hezbollah launched rockets into western Galilee just prior to critical White House discussions, escalating regional tensions. Markets remain largely unresponsive despite the attacks.
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worldTrump Brokers 3-Week Ceasefire Extension Between Israel and Lebanon
US President Donald Trump announced a three-week extension of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire following high-level talks at the White House, aiming to formalize peace.