Meta is creating Arena, a standalone prediction market platform, according to an internal assignment by CEO Mark Zuckerberg. The app will operate independently of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger.
Arena will initially use a points-based system rather than real-money bets, but Meta hasn’t ruled out monetising participation later. That could escalate competition with top platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, which have both ridden surging demand for event-based forecasting.
This isn’t Meta’s first experiment-it launched Forecast in 2020, a points-based prediction tool that gained attention during COVID-19 before shutting down in 2022.
Prediction markets are now one of the fastest-growing digital sectors. Trading volumes have jumped to an estimated $130 billion this year, driven by election cycles and mainstream curiosity. Trump Media recently partnered with Crypto.com to integrate prediction markets into Truth Social, underscoring the trend.
Meta’s unmatched reach-3.56 billion daily active users-could catapult prediction markets into everyday digital life. Even a small slice of that audience engaging with Arena would dwarf current platforms, validate the market model, and intensify industry competition.