Aramco Trading and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) have successfully moved oil cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint closed since late February due to airstrikes by the US and Israel on Iran. The strait handles about 20% of global oil and LNG trade. This successful transit is the first major sign of a partial reopening, easing severe global supply constraints that alternative routes have failed to offset.
Market odds for 20 ships transiting the strait by May 31 have dropped to 68% YES, down from 76% a day ago. The likelihood of a formal announcement by President Trump to lift the blockade remains at 40% YES. The news has had no material effect on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait market, which remains at 8.2%.