State television reports multiple blasts near Sirik, a strategic Iranian port near the Strait of Hormuz. This area is critical for controlling the vital shipping lane.
The reported explosions are directly influencing prediction markets. Bets on a full Iranian airspace closure by July 31 saw the probability jump from 16% to 24.5% in just 24 hours. The market for a closure by August 31 also climbed to 35.5%.
Market participants are interpreting the military activity as a sign that further escalation is increasingly likely.