A funeral prayer for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei drew vast crowds to the Imam Ali Holy Shrine in Najaf, Iraq. This marks a major moment in the weeklong ceremonies following his death in a US-Israeli airstrike.
The event is occurring as Iran navigates a sensitive political transition. A three-person council is temporarily managing state affairs, creating a period of significant uncertainty.
Market analysis shows a decreased likelihood of public appearances by Khamenei's son, Mojtaba. Odds for him appearing by July 31 stand at just 5.5%, reflecting deep concerns about regime stability.
Longer-term expectations are slightly higher, with markets pricing a 40% chance of a public appearance by the end of December. This indicates analysts are watching for potential developments in the latter part of the year.
The broader question of regime stability is also being tracked, with prediction markets placing the odds of the Iranian regime falling by year's end at 7.5%.