The Iran war, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, has escalated into a broad regional conflict. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and sustained strikes on Iranian military sites triggered missile and drone attacks by Iran targeting Israel, US bases, and allied Arab states.
This military expansion has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, severely disrupting global oil flows. Prediction markets are pricing a 100% likelihood of ongoing Iran military action against neighbors. WTI Crude Oil for May 2026 shows a 48% probability of reaching $110 per barrel, with lower odds for higher thresholds up to $150.
The market sees a low probability-just 4%-of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30, 2026. Analysts are closely watching further military moves by Iran, US-Israeli responses, and any diplomatic shifts that could affect oil supply and regional stability.