Iran Steps Up Control Over Strait of Hormuz Despite US Warnings

Iran is moving to formalize control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, despite threats from the United States. About one-fifth of the world's petroleum liquids transit this passageway.

Market signals reflect rising risk. The Strait of Hormuz Normal Traffic prediction market now shows a 7.5% YES probability, down from 10%. The Strait of Hormuz Ship Transit market dropped to 12.5% YES from 14%, with just one day left until resolution.

Analysts see these moves as consistent with scenarios of increased restrictions, including potential fees and compliance requirements for ships. U.S. reactions-military or diplomatic-remain a key variable. Key dates: May 31 (ship transit resolution) and June 15 (traffic normalization).