Tehran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil, triggering what the International Energy Agency calls the largest supply disruption on record. The move is the latest escalation in the military campaign between the US, Israel, and Iran that began in late February.
Brent Crude has surged above $120 per barrel. Analysts say West Texas Intermediate could hit $150 if the blockade holds. The shock is hitting Asia hardest: the Philippines and other net importers are facing soaring energy costs and potential power shortages. The conflict has also disrupted regional aviation and targeted Gulf desalination plants, raising humanitarian alarms.
Markets are now watching for any signs of US-Iran negotiations or a shift in US Energy Information Administration forecasts. The odds on Polymarket for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by year's end sit at 32%.