The Israel Defense Forces have intensified operations in southern Lebanon, killing 130 Hezbollah fighters and destroying a major tunnel network. The offensive is part of the resumption of the 2026 Lebanon war following a March 2 truce breach.
Israeli strategy now focuses on pushing to the Litani River, mirroring the 1982-2000 occupation. The campaign includes Operation Eternal Darkness, launched April 8, and has resulted in over 2,000 Lebanese casualties.
Prediction markets reflect skepticism about an Israeli withdrawal. The contract for withdrawal by April 30, 2026, stands at just 0.1% YES. The June 30 contract shows 9% likelihood, down from 10%.
Key figures to watch include Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief Yoav Gallant. Diplomatic intervention from the U.S. or UNIFIL could shift the trajectory.