Recent satellite imagery reveals Iran's primary crude export terminal on Kharg Island is inactive. No seaborne oil exports have been reported for the past month. This follows intensified US sanctions and a naval blockade initiated in April 2026, aimed at crippling Iran's oil trade network.
The imagery also shows an oil slick covering approximately 45 square kilometers, suggesting potential infrastructure damage or overflow issues due to the blockade. Kharg Island handles nearly 90% of Iran's crude exports, making it a critical revenue source for Tehran.
Prediction markets reflect the disruption. The probability of normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by May 15 is priced at 0.2%, down from 1.0% yesterday. The chance of 20 ships transiting on any day by May 31 is at 44%, down from 84% a week ago.
Market participants view continued disruption as likely. Observers are watching for any diplomatic or military developments between the US and Iran that could alter the current blockade conditions.