Israeli forces launched more than 130 projectiles into southern Lebanon, targeting over 100 Hezbollah sites across the country’s south and Beirut’s suburbs. The strikes came as the US and Iran appeared to be closing in on a memorandum of understanding expected to be signed around June 15.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the Israeli military operations, warning they threaten to derail both the US-Iran negotiations and broader ceasefire efforts in the region.
Brent crude oil prices fell by more than $3 per barrel following news of the US-Iran deal framework. The logic is straightforward: a potential agreement between Washington and Tehran reduces the perceived risk of supply disruptions. Asian stock markets rallied on the same optimism.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, told a different story. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap was trading below $80,000 as the strikes escalated, reflecting the risk-off behavior familiar during geopolitical flare-ups.
The anticipated agreement is expected to include a ceasefire extension and address elements of Iran’s nuclear program. Periods of de-escalation in the Middle East throughout 2026 have consistently correlated with short-term rallies in Bitcoin and major altcoins. The oil price reaction already hints at what a successful deal could look like across asset classes.
If the memorandum is signed and the ceasefire extends, a move back above $80,000 would signal that the market is pricing in genuine de-escalation. If the deal collapses or Israel continues operations regardless, expect the $80,000 level to function as resistance rather than support.