Israel and Lebanon have initiated direct peace negotiations in Washington for the first time since 1993. The talks, facilitated by the Trump administration, come as a fragile US-backed ceasefire nears its expiration.
The current ceasefire, which began on April 16 and was extended once, remains tenuous with limited Hezbollah attacks resuming. Key sticking points include Israel's demand for Hezbollah's disarmament and Lebanon's call for Israeli withdrawal from southern territories.
Prediction markets show shifting confidence. The odds of a ceasefire extension by May 17 stand at 57% YES, down from higher levels, indicating ongoing uncertainty.