Iran Controls Strait of Hormuz as Ceasefire Odds Plummet

Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz has dramatically escalated tensions, sending ceasefire probabilities into freefall. The April 7 ceasefire market sits at just 7.5% YES, down from 26% a week ago.

Traders are reacting sharply to the geopolitical squeeze. The April 15 market shows 18.5% YES, while April 30 hovers at 36.5% - both significantly lower than previous weeks. The steepest movement appears in the May 31 market at 55.5% YES.

Market volatility reflects the uncertainty. Over $1.39 million trades daily across these contracts, with the April 15 market seeing the heaviest action at $600,000. A single $61,773 trade can move April 15 odds by five points, demonstrating extreme sensitivity.

Iran's strategic maneuver signals major escalation, challenging immediate ceasefire hopes. Military response from the U.S. could trigger further bearish moves. Diplomatic intervention through Oman or Qatar remains the only stabilization path.

The biggest term structure jump shows a 19-point increase between April 30 and May 31, suggesting traders expect a catalyst in that timeframe. CENTCOM's next military deployment decisions will prove pivotal for market direction.