Israeli forces have launched new strikes targeting areas south of Beirut, escalating the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. Hezbollah retaliated with a drone strike from Lebanon, further eroding the fragile US-brokered ceasefire.
The conflict has killed over 2,700 people in Lebanon and 17 Israeli soldiers. Israeli forces continue expanding their security zone in southern Lebanon despite international calls for de-escalation.
On Polymarket, the probability that Israel will withdraw from Lebanon by June 30, 2026, now stands at just 9.5% YES, down from previous levels. The market views further escalation as likely.