Iran has threatened to permanently close the Strait of Hormuz, raising global energy security concerns. Market odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to just 1.9%, down from 8% previously.
The April 7 ceasefire market is now valued at only 1.9% YES, reflecting trader skepticism. The April 15 market stands at 8.5%, while the April 30 market shows 24.5%, down from 40% a day earlier. The May 31 market is at 46.5%, and the December 31 market sits at 71.5%.
Ceasefire markets have seen heavy trading, with $661,902 in volume in the last 24 hours. Traders are closely watching statements from CENTCOM, possible new sanctions, or mediation from Qatar or Oman. Any diplomatic developments could shift market sentiment.
A ceasefire bet at 2¢ per YES share offers a 50x return if resolved correctly, but such a rapid breakthrough seems unlikely. Analysts warn that Iran's strategy may signal deeper intentions beyond rhetoric.