Negotiators are expressing doubt that Iran will meet President Trump's deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Market odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have fallen to 1.1%.
The April 7 ceasefire market shows a mere 1.1% likelihood, down significantly from previous days. Other deadlines, such as April 30 and May 31, also show declining probabilities for resolution.
Despite active trading volume, a 2-point spike in April 30 odds is viewed as market noise without substantive progress. Pessimism from negotiators points to entrenched positions and potential escalation.
With the deadline approaching, the chances of a diplomatic breakthrough are slim. Any significant movement would require confirmed talks or third-party intervention, neither of which appears imminent.
Key indicators to watch include statements from Secretary of State Rubio and CENTCOM, as well as any diplomatic efforts from Oman or Qatar.