Russia launched a significant air assault targeting Kyiv and Odesa, resulting in 17 fatalities. This escalation has drastically lowered the odds of a ceasefire by May 31, 2026, now at 5%.
The attack involved an extensive deployment of drones and missiles, including ballistic and cruise types. Market analysts interpret the renewed offensive and increased European military aid as signals of further conflict, not progress towards peace. The probability of a ceasefire within the next 45 days appears diminished.
Key factors influencing future developments include statements from leadership, peace talk progress, and shifts in European military aid strategies.