Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly carried out covert strikes inside Iran, according to US officials. The operations include a UAE airstrike on a key oil facility and subsequent Saudi attacks. This marks a significant shift away from proxy warfare toward direct military engagement by Gulf states.
The actions follow a recent US-Israeli air campaign against Iran that ended in a ceasefire and come in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia. Neither Riyadh nor Abu Dhabi has publicly confirmed the operations, highlighting their covert nature.
Prediction markets reflect heightened regional risk. The probability of Iran taking military action against its neighbors has risen sharply. The chance of Iran closing its airspace sits at 37.5%, while the likelihood of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 has dropped to 40.1%, signaling diminished expectations for near-term diplomacy.