Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, immediately impacting prediction markets. The April 7 market jumped from 8% to 70.5% YES following the announcement, spiking 42 points from 34%. The April 15 market surged to 80% YES, indicating trader confidence the ceasefire will extend beyond two weeks.
Polymarket shares priced at 70.5¢ offer $1 returns if confirmed by April 7, creating 1.42x potential returns. The April 30 market reached 86.5% YES, signaling long-term peace expectations. Total 24-hour trading volume hit $3.68 million in USDC.
The ceasefire represents a strategic shift toward reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz for global oil transit. Market depth analysis shows $318 required to move April 15 prices five points versus $52,408 for April 7, demonstrating stronger trader conviction in later dates. Watch for confirmation from CENTCOM and diplomatic statements from both nations.