Tehran's healthcare system is nearing collapse as the U.S.-led Operation Epic Fury continues. Israeli and American airstrikes have destroyed key pharmaceutical factories and research institutes across Iran, leading to severe shortages of medical supplies.
The result: outbreaks of infectious diseases among displaced populations and toxic air pollution over the capital. Hospitals are now reduced to makeshift clinics. Experts are warning of a full humanitarian crisis.
The operation began February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities after failed negotiations. A fragile ceasefire holds, but Iranian forces continue defensive preparations.
On prediction markets, the likelihood that Iran closes its airspace by May 8 sits at 13.5% YES, down from 18%. The probability of a closure by May 31 stands at 34.5%, down from 42%. The chance of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 is just 5.5%.
The deteriorating humanitarian situation suggests increased pressure on the regime, supporting a higher probability of defensive actions including airspace closure.