President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on May 29, 2026, announcing that Iran had agreed not to develop nuclear weapons and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen for unrestricted shipping. Trump stated buried enriched nuclear material would be jointly destroyed by the U.S., Iran, and the IAEA, and that the naval blockade would be lifted and water mines cleared. The announcement has not been confirmed by Iranian state media or third-party diplomatic sources. IRGC Commander Hossein Salami has not publicly responded.
Prediction markets show modest movement: the Strait of Hormuz normalization market rose from 8% to 8.5% YES, reflecting skepticism that full normalization will occur by June 15. Participants view oil sanction relief (55% YES) and asset unfreezing (50% YES) as more likely than uranium enrichment rights (14% YES) or transit fees (6% YES). WTI crude oil $150 strike markets remain near 0.1%-0.4% YES, indicating traders see extreme price spikes as effectively ruled out.
Trump said he would convene in the Situation Room for a final determination, suggesting the framework remains unsigned. Confirmation from Iranian state media, the IAEA, or the U.S. Defense Department would represent a high-impact development. The June 15 resolution deadline leaves 17 days for observable shipping data to reflect normalization.