Former US President Donald Trump has indicated the possibility of striking additional locations in Iran, signaling a potential expansion of the current US-Israel military campaign. The conflict, now in its eleventh week, includes direct airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and missile facilities. In response, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz and targeted US and Israeli assets. US Central Command reports partial success in degrading Iran's missile production and naval capabilities, though Iran's nuclear stockpiles have reportedly been dispersed. Trump's remarks suggest the campaign's objectives may broaden beyond dismantling Iran's nuclear and missile programs.
Prediction markets reflect the shifting landscape. The likelihood of a US invasion of Iran before 2027 stands at 19.5%, while the odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal by the end of May have risen to 22.5%. Markets also indicate reduced expectations for near-term diplomatic meetings. Key actors to watch include President Trump, Iran's Supreme Leader, and international mediators from Pakistan and China.