President Trump acknowledged that the United States armed groups inside Iran, fueling riots and unrest during a fragile ceasefire.
The April 7 ceasefire, brokered after US-Israeli airstrikes, remains unstable amid recent naval confrontations. Trump's disclosure exposes a dual strategy of military engagement and internal destabilization.
Prediction markets reacted swiftly. The probability of a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by June 30, 2026, sits at just 16.5%, down from 16% a day ago. The market for a deal by May 31 dropped to 2.9%.
Analysts say the admission undermines trust and reduces the likelihood of a settlement. Attention turns to responses from Prime Minister Netanyahu and Supreme Leader Khamenei, as well as activity in the Strait of Hormuz.