A U.S. Army helicopter has been observed monitoring commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Central Command. The U.S. is enforcing a maritime blockade that has redirected 78 ships and disabled four. The Strait, a critical chokepoint, remains a flashpoint in U.S.-Iran tensions.
The enforcement reduces the likelihood of 20 ships transiting by May 31 - odds fell to 46% from 60%. Traffic normalization by July 31 also dropped to 43.5%.
Watch for further military actions and statements from General Dan Caine or Iranian officials. Any diplomatic breakthrough could shift market expectations.