The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is tightening the screws on Iran's oil infrastructure. With Kharg Island-the nation's primary export hub-now at 74% storage capacity, analysts warn Iran has just 12 to 22 days before it must begin shutting down its oldest wells. Restarting production from mature fields like Asmari and Bangestan would be a difficult and costly endeavor.
The blockade has effectively halted Iranian oil exports. This development is part of an escalating US-Iran standoff that has drawn intense market focus. On Polymarket, the probability of a change in control over Kharg Island by June 30 is currently priced at 11.5%.
Market participants view this as a significant geopolitical risk that could drive WTI crude oil prices higher due to anticipated supply disruptions.