The ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, which began in late February 2026, has significantly disrupted global energy markets. Approximately 20% of global crude oil supply has been affected, with additional impacts on Qatari liquefied natural gas production. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to shipping attacks has pushed Brent crude prices above $79 per barrel, an 8.5% increase, with natural gas futures surging by 42%.
Turkey’s central bank has raised its 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 15-21%, up from the previous 13-19% estimate. The conflict has resulted in US consumers facing $37.3 billion in additional energy expenses since the war began. Market pricing now shows a 69.5% likelihood of no Fed rate cuts in 2026, up from 59% a day ago. WTI crude oil price predictions for May 2026 show a 56.5% chance of reaching $110 per barrel, a sharp increase from 36% a week ago.