The United States has deployed over 20 warships, including the USS John Finn, to enforce a naval blockade against Iran in the Arabian Sea. This escalation follows US and Israeli air strikes and the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The blockade began after failed negotiations in Islamabad. In retaliation, Iran has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil and LNG trade and attacking US destroyers.
Prediction markets indicate a 40.5% probability the blockade will be lifted by May 31, down 1.5% from prior levels. The likelihood of normal traffic through the Strait by May 15 stands at just 1.5%.