The United Arab Emirates intercepted 15 missiles and four drones launched from Iran, reserving the right to retaliate militarily. This marks a major escalation in the ongoing 2026 Iran-Gulf conflict, which began after coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February.
The UAE, a key U.S. ally, has faced repeated Iranian retaliation despite a conditional ceasefire signed in April. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical flashpoint for regional security.
Prediction markets now price Iranian military action against neighbors at 100% YES. The probability of Iran closing its airspace by May 31 has jumped to 51%, up from 23.5% for a closure by May 8.