The United States has launched quiet escort operations for commercial ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz, where severe GPS jamming-attributed to electronic warfare by both sides-is disrupting global oil transit. The Strait handles up to one-third of the world's seaborne oil.
This escalation follows renewed US-Iran hostilities, including Iranian attacks on UAE infrastructure and subsequent US military responses. The operation, called "Project Freedom," is designed to keep shipping lanes open despite the heightened risk environment. Intelligence officials note the strategic importance of maintaining safe passage amid the crisis.
Prediction markets now price an 85% chance that 20 or more ships will transit on any day by May 31, up from 63% a day earlier. However, the odds of traffic returning to normal by May 15 remain low at 11%, reflecting persistent jamming and targeting risks. Analysts say any official statements from US Central Command or Iranian military leaders could shift these projections rapidly.