U.S. and Israeli officials aim to weaken Iran's nuclear capabilities before ending military actions. The odds of a ceasefire by April 30 stand at 17.5%.
Despite talks of de-escalation, markets show little confidence. The April 7 market sits at 1.1% YES. The April 15 market dropped to 6.5% YES from 8%. The April 30 market rose slightly to 17.5% YES.
The May 31 market trades at 36.5% YES, indicating more optimism for resolution. Trading data shows a 24-hour volume of $3.76 million, with $430,000 in USDC traded.
A YES share for an April 30 ceasefire costs 18 cents, offering a 5.6x return if successful. The lack of confirmed talks tempers optimism about immediate diplomatic breakthroughs.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or moves by Oman or Qatar. Secretary of State Rubio's involvement could signal market shifts.