President Donald Trump has declared there will "never be a deal" with Iran, sharply escalating tensions and dimming prospects for a diplomatic resolution.
This comes after stalled negotiations since the April 8 ceasefire and Iran's rejection of demands to abandon uranium enrichment. The US maintains a naval blockade and threatens further action. Pakistan's mediation efforts have failed, and Trump canceled envoy talks, citing discord among Iranian leadership.
Prediction markets reflect the shift: the US-Iran ceasefire market has dropped to 0.1% YES, signaling near-zero expectation of a formal halt to hostilities by month's end. A diplomatic meeting market also shows declining confidence.
Analysts warn the hardening stance increases the potential for higher oil prices, as markets brace for regional disruptions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.