Kalshi shattered its monthly trading record in June, reaching nearly $9.4 billion in volume as the 2026 FIFA World Cup dominated prediction market activity. Rival platform Polymarket also saw a significant rise, climbing to approximately $4.3 billion.
The tournament, which kicked off June 11, is the first to feature 48 teams. High-stakes knockout matches are generating massive action. Canada's Round of 16 match against Morocco attracted over $48 million in volume on Kalshi, while the United States’ match pulled in more than $2.1 million.
This financial boom is unfolding amid a fierce legal battle. Nearly a dozen US states have moved to restrict platforms like Kalshi. Federal regulators are pushing back, with the CFTC accusing states of pursuing illegal enforcement actions against federally regulated exchanges. The agency argues that Congress granted it sole authority over these derivative markets.
The fight has escalated to Capitol Hill, where casino operators and tribal organizations are urging Congress to strip the CFTC of its oversight of sports-event contracts. Meanwhile, Europe has taken a stricter approach, with the European Securities and Markets Authority warning that many event contracts may be prohibited under existing binary options restrictions.
