(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said the US economy is in good shape, though it’s unclear whether the labor market is getting back to normal rates of hiring or more seriously deteriorating.
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Barkin spoke after the July employment report showed non-farm payrolls rose by 114,000 — one of the weakest gains since the pandemic — and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed for a fourth month to 4.3%. Stocks prices fell while bonds rallied, and futures traders priced in the possibility of an aggressive round of rate cutting through the end of the year.
“We’ve been through two years, two-and-a-half years of very frothy labor markets,” Barkin said in an interview with the Carolina Business Review. “The question is, of course, are we normalizing or are we weakening?”
The difference is meaningful, he said, adding, “It gets to the question of whether we’re going to plateau or whether unemployment’s going to rise from here.”
September federal funds futures contracts imply at least a quarter-point cut, and the significant probability of a 50-basis-point cut.
Barkin, who is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, said he wouldn’t take back his vote to hold rates steady this week. He said inflation is “normalizing,” and the question is what the labor market does from here.
“We’re seeing job growth, but the question you have to ask is how long does a low-hiring, low-firing environment persist?” he said, calling that condition abnormal. “It doesn’t have to weaken. It could also strengthen if businesses start to think that, hey, the opportunities out there are significant.”
The FOMC next meets September 17-18.
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